"Hot spots and new modes!" Analysis: EU leaders scramble over immigration

European Union leaders gather in Brussels on October 17 and 18 for their regular autumn summit. The meeting is the last before the US presidential election, which will be held in November, as well as the presidential election and EU membership referendum in Moldova, on October 20, and the parliamentary elections in Georgia, on October 26.

In Brussels, talks on Ukraine will be the main focus, although few decisions are expected. The hot topic is expected to be the migration debate, which could have ramifications for some countries hoping to one day join the EU. The summit's draft conclusions, seen by Radio Free Europe, include little news for Ukraine.

In addition to mentioning some kind of "peace summit" that would be held by the end of the year, potentially including Russian participation, the text of the conclusions simply states that "The European Council emphasizes that no initiative can be taken on Ukraine without Ukraine".

The draft document hints that there will be no new sanctions against Russia and that, instead, the leaders, at the end of the summit, will emphasize the need for "full and effective implementation of sanctions and further measures to fight their evasion, including through third countries".

On economic aid, EU ambassadors agreed last week on another 35 billion euros in financial aid for Kiev for 2025, which they took from the frozen assets of Russia's Central Bank in the EU. However, the EU did not agree to extend the sanctions against these assets - from six months to 36 months. This extension would allow other G7 countries, or the group of most industrialized countries, to provide funding as well.

Hungary is currently blocking the extension of the sanctions, and a decision on this matter is likely to be made by Brussels after the US presidential election. In the upcoming elections in Moldova, the summit's draft conclusions highlight the Kremlin's efforts to influence the process, through manipulations and interference in information. Although it does not take sides publicly, it is clear that Brussels hopes that Moldovans will vote for the EU, both in the referendum and in the presidential elections.

Just last week, the EU imposed an asset freeze and visa ban on five people, including Evghenia Gutulin, the pro-Russian governor of the autonomous Moldovan region of Gagauzia. The EU also sanctioned Eurasia, a Russian-based NGO founded to promote Russian interests in Moldova.

In addition, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, recently traveled to the capital of Moldova, Chisinau, where she presented a financial package for this country, worth 1.8 billion euros, for the next three years. For Georgia, the mood is decidedly bleaker.

The draft conclusions point out a " serious concern about the course of action in Georgia, which contradicts the values ​​and principles on which the European Union was founded" and emphasize that recent developments in Georgia endanger the country's path to the EU and "de facto stop the membership process".

The adoption of the so-called "foreign agent law" and the "anti-LGBT law" in Georgia has prompted the EU to cancel high-level political visits to Tbilisi and block some funds dedicated to the country. South Caucasus. Brussels does not rule out the possibility of adopting more measures in the future if Georgia deviates further from democracy.

But the most intense discussion at this week's two-day summit is expected to center around migration. The most controversial line in the draft conclusions concerns "new ways to prevent and combat irregular migration... in accordance with international law."

This is something like a continuation of a letter written by 15 EU member states - addressed to the European Commission in June - in which the need for different partnerships with non-EU countries was emphasized. This could mean paying countries like Tunisia and Turkey to prevent migrants from reaching the EU, or other schemes, such as the one being developed between Italy and Albania - where Rome is building camps to house up to in 40,000 migrants per year, who are caught at sea.

The idea of ​​creating these "external hotspots" outside the EU, where authorities will examine asylum seekers' claims before they enter the EU, is gaining ground. The tougher stance on migration comes weeks after Germany imposed controls across its borders. It followed an attack in western Germany in the summer when a failed asylum seeker killed three people.

Such attitudes also come after anti-immigration parties came out on top in parliamentary elections in Austria on September 29 and are holding up well in recent polls in the Czech Republic and Germany. It is worth noting that the recently formed French Government is also dependent on Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party, and that similar political forces are directing or influencing governments in other major EU states. of, like Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden.

It is only a small number of countries, notably Spain, that are reluctant to adopt the EU's more restrictive migration policies. While the EU summit will not go into detail about other countries that could play a similar role as Albania in terms of migrants, it is possible that other EU candidate countries, for example those in the Western Balkans , to be asked for something similar./ REL