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In 2016, a clothing or footwear factory in Albania, which sells for export, did its calculations with the exchange rate of 1 euro = 140 allek. Typically, if a factory produces shoes, its gross profit is about 2 euros per pair. These 2 euros, or 280 lek, were used to pay the employee's salary, rent, social security, other taxes or the owner's profits, all these expenses in lek.
Six years later, 1 euro costs 113 ALL, 24% cheaper than then. In order for the clothing or shoe factory to pay the same wages as then, it must increase the income from the sale of its labor by 24%. This, just to cover the losses from the strengthening of the lek in the exchange rate. But if the factory is going to have to raise wages, then either its labor efficiency must increase by more than 24%, or its selling price must increase at an extraordinary rate.
During this period other costs of doing business have increased. The taxes that the government demands from employees, and which it falsely presents as "minimum wage", have increased. Transportation and fuel costs have increased as a result of the government's "Rama" taxes. And the cost of living for employees, meaning their electricity or water bill, has gone up, which requires a higher income to live on.
But the biggest problem of all seems to be the exchange rate.
The lek began to strengthen around 2016, a time that coincided with the first wave of mass cultivation of marijuana, while from 2018, the Bank of Albania was forced to intervene in the market to buy euros in order to avoid further strengthening. Since then, the country has been hit by an earthquake, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the price crisis caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, three shocks that would normally have caused serious concern for macroeconomic stability. of the country.
In short, when the country was hit by the earthquake of November 26, 2019, logic would have it that government spending to help those affected would bring high imports and downward pressure against the Lek in the foreign exchange rate. Likewise, while COVID-19 forced Albanians to dip their hand deep into their savings to pay for medical care, what is logically expected is that the lek will depreciate. But neither these nor the price crisis of 2022, with the expenditure of hundreds of millions of euros for importing electricity or fuel, not only did not harm the lek's chances of success, but the lek did not even deserve to be bothered by these crises. In February of last year, while Russian tanks were attacking Ukraine, the euro cost 122 ALL. The country's trade deficit reached over 4.1 billion euros in 2022,
Forcimi i lekut është një faktor madhor që po gërryen aftësinë e vendit për të prodhuar mallra dhe për të eksportuar mallra apo shërbime. Industria fason është shembulli më i dukshëm sepse është një ekonomi e varfër, ku luhatjet në kursin e këmbimit ndjehen më shumë. Por çdo gjë tjetër ecën në këtë drejtim. Qumështi pluhur i importit konkurron me çmim më të ulët qumështin e fermerit të vogël, pushimet që një shqiptar mund të kalojë në Greqi kushtojnë krahasimisht më lirë se sa më parë. Pushimet që një kosovar kalon në Shqipëri kushtojnë krahasimisht më shtrenjtë. Në çastin që kosovarëve u liberalizohen vizat, siç shpresohet të ndodhë së shpejti, i ashtuquajturi turizmi patriotik fillon të konkurrohet nga turizmi ekonomik. Distanca Prishtinë-Selanik është fare pak më e madhe se sa distanca Prishtinë-Durrës.
Natyrisht që forcimi i kursit të këmbimit është vetëm një nga problemet ekonomike të vendit. Korrupsioni është problemi tjetër madhor, i cili e bën të pamundur që vendi të ketë infrastrukturën e nevojshme bazë për zhvillim. Numri i qyteteve që kanë ujë të pijshëm dhe furnizim të rregullt numërohet me gishtat e njërës dorë. Rrugët prishen menjëherë sapo u hidhet një dorë asfalt elektoral. Vendi harxhon qindramilionë euro për rrugë që nuk përfundojnë kurrë. Në fund të fundit, rritja ekonomike është asgjë më shumë se sa një përmirësim gradual. Një rrugë e re sjell kursim në kosto, karburant, pjesë këmbimi, kohë. Por në rast se paratë e rrugës vidhen, atëherë nuk ka rritje ekonomike e nuk ka se si të ketë rritje pagash.
Sa i përket kursit të këmbimit, logjika ekonomike sugjeron se e kundërta duhej të kishte ndodhur. Një vend i varfër mban një tolerancë më të lartë ndaj inflacionit se sa një vend i pasur. P.sh., objektivi i Bankës Qendrore Evropiane për normën e inflacionit në Eurozonë është “pranë por poshtë 2%” në vit. Objektivi i Bankës së Shqipërisë është 3% në vit me luhatshmëri nga 2 deri në 4%. Këto janë themele të vendosura me supozimin që, përgjatë tre dekadave të ardhshme, ekonomia e Shqipërisë do të rritet për t’u afruar me mesataren e Bashkimit Evropian. Do të thotë që ekonomia shqiptare do të rritet me ritëm më të shpejtë rritjeje se sa ekonomia e BE-së dhe ritmi më i shpejtë i rritjes nënkupton nevojën për shkallë më të lartë inflacioni. Dhe kjo nënkupton një nënçmim gradual të lekut kundrejt euros, por jo forcim të tij.
Kjo gjë nuk ka ndodhur, së paku që nga viti 2016 e më pas, për shkakun e dukshëm se paratë e drogës janë sheshit dhe ato po forcojnë lekun dhe po vrasin prodhimin vendës. Është një fenomen i vjetër ky i njohur nëpër botë. Quhet sëmundja holandeze. Normalisht që pagat nuk mund të rriten për sa kohë prodhimi i veshjeve dhe këpucëve konkurrohet në mënyrë indirekte nga suksesi i trafikantëve shqiptarë të drogës në Mbretërinë e Bashkuar. Normalisht që punëtorët, duke mos pasur mundësi që të sigurojnë të ardhura normale me punë në Shqipëri, do të shkojnë të sigurojnë këto të ardhura në emigrim, kryesisht në punë të vështirë dhe të ndershme, e me raste, me krim dhe drogë.
The solution to this problem does not consist in negotiations to increase wages with employers who calculate how much goods they sell and how much income they have. The solution begins with the seizure of crime money./ BIRN
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