Survey: History and nationalism hold the region's economic integration hostage

The lack of trust inherited from history and nationalist policies remain the two main obstacles holding back regional cooperation among the Western Balkan economies.

The Regional Cooperation Council's survey of citizens of the 6 countries of the Region in 2025 proved that the psychological and political burdens of the past have a greater impact than technical or infrastructural barriers, creating a continuous impasse in the integration processes of the Region.

Citizens share almost the same opinions on the fact that without an improvement in the climate of mutual trust, joint economic initiatives will always encounter difficulties in implementation.

The survey results showed that 38% of citizens in the 6 Western Balkan countries believe that historical conflicts hinder regional cooperation. This indicator is followed by nationalist politics, as 37% of citizens in the region believe that daily political rhetoric often undermines efforts for rapprochement.

Mutual prejudices are seen as a real problem by 26% of the region's citizens, which is affecting the maintenance of distance between countries.

Ethnic divisions and external global influences each concern 18% of citizens in the Region, reflecting fears of geopolitical interference. Notably, logistical issues such as poor connectivity and physical infrastructure are seen as obstacles by only 14% of respondents, while religious differences are seen as an obstacle by only 13%. This suggests that the region’s problem is not so much a lack of roads or capital investment, but a lack of political will and mutual trust.

At the national level, Albania and Kosovo display the highest sensitivity in the entire region regarding historical heritage and its long-term consequences. For Kosovo citizens, lack of trust due to history is the biggest concern at 51%, which is also the highest figure in the Region. This high percentage reflects the recent history of conflict and the unresolved political tensions that still dominate its foreign relations.

Meanwhile, in Albania this indicator is 43%, showing that here too historical memory is seen as a major barrier to moving forward. On the other hand, nationalist policies are considered the main threat to integration processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina with 44%, in North Macedonia with 40%, and in Montenegro with 39%. These countries, which are characterized by a multi-ethnic composition or by strong identity debates, see internal and neighboring nationalism as the greatest risk to regional stability.

Serbia exhibits a completely different dynamic from its Western Balkan neighbors, reversing the ranking of concerns. In this economy, external global influences lead the list of hindering factors with 22%, indicating a greater focus on geopolitics than on internal regional problems. This factor is closely followed by religious differences, which reach 21%, while the weight of nationalist policies there drops to only 29%.

This level is the lowest in the entire region for this category, suggesting that citizens in Serbia do not see nationalism as the main obstacle to trade cooperation. This particular approach positions Serbia as a country where the perception of risks is more related to external or cultural factors than to regional political rhetoric, thus creating an asymmetry in how the parties see the source of friction in the Balkans.

Ethnic divisions weigh most heavily in North Macedonia, where 32% of respondents see them as a serious obstacle to cooperation, reflecting the country's internal dynamics. This figure stands in stark contrast to Bosnia and Herzegovina, where only 10% of citizens selected this option, despite the fact that the country is known for its deep administrative divisions.

Meanwhile, religious differences are perceived as an obstacle mainly in Serbia (21%) and Bosnia (20%), while they register completely minimal and negligible values ​​in Kosovo (3%) and Albania (4%), where religious coexistence is traditionally not seen as a problem.

Regarding the deficit in physical infrastructure and poor connectivity, the concern remains almost uniform across the Western Balkans, moving at similar levels between 14% and 16%, with the exception of Serbia where this indicator drops to 11%.

Referring to the survey results where half of the population in key countries sees history as a threat, economic reforms to increase regional cooperation will remain difficult. Successful integration requires not only investments in roads and corridors, but above all joint projects that increase trust and reduce the influence of nationalist rhetoric./ Monitor