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China's military exercises show that Beijing does not need to invade Taiwan to control it — instead it can isolate the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the world, Chinese and American analysts say.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) drills, which officially began last Thursday, focused on six zones that essentially surrounded Taiwan, restricting access to civilian ships and aircraft in the area as the force conducted live-fire drills and launches rockets.
Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the PLA National Defense University, said the six areas were chosen to show how China can cut off Taiwan's ports, attack its most important military installations and cut off access for foreign forces that could come to Taiwan's aid.
"Connect the six areas in a line, like a loop, with the knot of the loop straight in the southwest direction," Meng said in an interview with state broadcaster CCTV.
China's Communist Party views democratic Taiwan as its territory – despite never having controlled it. Taiwan's unification with the mainland is a cornerstone of Chinese policy, and President Xi Jinping has not ruled out using force to bring the island under Beijing's control.
Meng noted that the northern exercise areas had successfully closed off Taiwan from Okinawa, the island where Japan and the United States base significant military assets. In the southern areas, the PLA showed it could control the Bashi Channel, "the only way in and out of the South China Sea," he said. And in the eastern areas, China's forces showed that accurate Chinese missile fire could force foreign warships to withdraw from Taiwan's waters, he added.
A trigger for long-planned exercise
The drills began after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi angered Beijing by visiting Taipei last week to show her support for democracy on the island.
Pekini përmbyti detet dhe qiejt rreth Tajvanit me anije dhe avionë -- deri në 80 avionë luftarakë dhe anije kineze u zbuluan në ngushticën e Tajvanit të dielën, sipas Ministrisë së Mbrojtjes së Tajvanit.
Në ditët e mëparshme, PLA gjithashtu gjuajti raketa drejt ishujve të vegjël të kontrolluar nga Tajvani afër kontinentit dhe lëshoi raketa balistike më larg, me disa që fluturuan mbi Tajvan dhe ranë në oqeanin në lindje të ishullit. Pesë u përplasën në Zonën Ekonomike Ekskluzive të Japonisë -- një mesazh për një nga mbështetësit kryesorë të Tajvanit si dhe për qeverinë në Taipei.
Një hartë e gjashtë zonave të stërvitjes kineze "përcakton qartë se ku kinezët mendojnë se zonat kryesore operative janë për frikësimin e tyre strategjik të Tajvanit," shkroi Mick Ryan, një bashkëpunëtor në Qendrën për Studime Strategjike dhe Ndërkombëtare dhe ish gjeneral i Ushtrisë Australiane. në Twitter.
Anijet tregtare dhe avionët u paralajmëruan të qëndrojnë larg zonave të stërvitjes, duke i detyruar transportuesit dhe linjat ajrore të rregullojnë rrugë alternative.
Carl Schuster, një ish-drejtor i operacioneve në Qendrën e Përbashkët të Inteligjencës të Komandës së Paqësorit të SHBA-së në Hawaii tha se bllokada e gjashtë zonave tregoi se çdo marrje e Tajvanit mund të fillojë me një strategji izolimi.
"Stërvitja tregoi se bllokada në një konflikt nuk duhet të kërkojë një prani të vazhdueshme detare në det, por përkundrazi, transporti detar dhe ajror mund të pengohen nga kërcënimet ajrore dhe raketore në mbështetje të një bllokade detare," tha Schuster.
"Stërvitja ... sugjeron se Pekini fillimisht do të izolonte Tajvanin dhe do të përdorte sulme ajrore dhe raketore me shpresën për të thyer vullnetin politik të Taipeit. Një pushtim i kushtueshëm ndoshta është zgjidhja e fundit," tha Schuster.
Çfarë mund të vijë më pas
Schuster tha se shumica e asaj që demonstroi Pekini kishte qenë prej kohësh në punë. Stërvitjet përkoi me stërvitjet standarde ushtarake në kalendarin e trajnimit të PLA, por ai tha se vizita e Pelosit i lejoi Kinës të bënte një deklaratë më të madhe.
"Madhësia, shtrirja gjeografike dhe kompleksiteti i stërvitjes pasqyruan muaj të tëra planifikimi," tha ai. "Kjo stërvitje shënon përshkallëzimin e fundit në stërvitjen ushtarake në zgjerim të Kinës dhe fushatën e frikësimit të Tajvanit."
Ai tha se pret që PLA do të vazhdojë të ushtrojë presion mbi Tajvanin dhe gjithashtu mund t'i dërgojë një mesazh Japonisë me më shumë stërvitje në veri të ishullit.
Stërvitje të reja janë gjithashtu të mundshme në Detin e Kinës Jugore, 1.3 milion milje katrore uji, pothuajse të gjitha këto që Kina pretendon si territorin e saj sovran, ku Pekini ka ndërtuar fortifikime ushtarake në ishujt e kontestuar, tha Schuster.
While the ongoing exercises will allow the PLA to refine its tactics and operations, they could also provide an opportunity for adversaries to learn about China's modern military, experts say.
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