Analysis: The world seems to have turned a blind eye to the evolution of the Islamic State!

US-backed forces declared in 2019 that the extremist group Islamic State (IS) had been defeated. But as recent years have shown, that marked only the end of the so-called state, which stretched across Iraq and Syria – not the threat that still looms today.

The extremist group is showing resilience and is experiencing a resurgence in other parts of the world – while its operational capabilities are being strengthened. Since January 2024, the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for high-profile attacks around the world, from Iran and Russia to Germany and the United States.

"IS continues to pose a threat to global security and is the deadliest terrorist organization in the world," said Adrian Shtuni, a security specialist and head of the Washington-based Shtuni Center, in several responses to Radio Free Europe.

"The organization now relies primarily on a dynamic network of regional collaborators who operate independently ," he said.

IS's vision and goals have not changed, but since its territorial losses in 2019, the extremist group has undergone a radical evolution in structure and operations, analysts said. A number of IS affiliates have emerged around the world in recent years, especially in regions where there is little capacity to counter extremism.

Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the Soufan Group – based in New York – said that IS has become a group for which the sum of its parts is greater than itself.

"IS can be even more challenging as a decentralized group than it was when it was a model state. When it was run as a proto-state, it was a big target," Clarke told Radio Free Europe.

IS and its affiliates have been present around the world in the past year through deadly attacks. In January 2024, a double suicide bombing in the Iranian city of Kerman killed about 100 people.

Two months later, four attackers targeted the Crocus Concert Hall outside Moscow, killing 145 people in a mass shooting, stabbing and other attacks. In August, a suicide bomber killed at least 20 people in the Somali capital, Mogadishu.

A few days later, an IS member stabbed people at a festival in Solingen, Germany, killing three. The group's presence has also been noted in the United States. On January 1, an IS-inspired attacker drove a truck into a crowd in New Orleans, killing 14 people and injuring dozens more.

The gunman, a Texas-born U.S. Army veteran, was killed by police. Saturday said the attacks were evidence not only of the group's "continued calls for terrorist violence, but also of the organization's resilience and global reach."

IS and its affiliates have carried out an average of 600 attacks per year over the past three years, according to data compiled by Dragonfly, a London-based global security consultancy.

Although the number has fallen from the average of three years ago – 770 – the incidents are now becoming more deadly, as the average number of victims per attack has increased by 40 percent, according to the Dragonfly tracker database.

The data "does not imply a resurgence of IS and its affiliates in recent years, but a degree of resilience," Dragonfly told Radio Free Europe.

"However, concern has grown in the international press due to IS's intentions to increase the death toll in attacks around the world ," the group said.

Through its affiliates, IS has a strong presence and is engaged in several centers in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

One of the groups that has emerged as one of the most effective is the Khorasan Province (KPP), which has expanded its operations beyond Afghanistan and is attracting militants from Central Asian nations, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Meanwhile, Somalia has become an important hub for the group's expansion into Africa. The group is exploiting Somalia's instability to strengthen its people and networks, recruiting fighters from Ethiopia, Sudan and Tanzania.

The group is also increasing its presence in the Sahel region, where the IS West Africa branch remains the dominant terrorist organization in the Lake Chad basin. Recruitment is not only happening on the ground, but also online.

"In the digital space, IS continues to exploit social media platforms and encrypted messaging to spread ideology, radicalize, recruit, raise funds, and organize attacks," Shtuni said.

He cited a recent wave of inspired attacks in Europe, which, he said, speak to three worrying trends: that radicalization is occurring primarily online, with considerable speed, and that it involves young people, including minors.

"The online space should be given a lot of importance, especially given the fact that military operations have diminished compared to the global war on terrorism," said Lucas Webber, senior analyst at the organization Technology Against Terrorism, in several responses to Radio Free Europe.

IS enjoys financial stability through its diverse revenue streams and constantly evolving tactics. Despite the loss of senior figures, its base in Syria and Iraq has reserves worth $10-20 million, which are supplemented by regional branches through proceeds from kidnappings, thefts and other crimes, according to a US Treasury report last year.

At its peak, when the group's self-proclaimed caliphate controlled large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, its revenues were dominated by oil sales. But IS now relies on criminal activity and other means of generating funds. In Africa, branches such as IS-Somalia generate millions of dollars from businesses and various financial systems.

In Asia, the IS branch in Khorasan province has struggled financially as key figures have been arrested or killed across the Middle East. However, the branch has bounced back by using virtual assets to fund external operations, including the Crocus Hall attack.

Access to global systems remains critical, as IS uses cryptocurrencies to transfer funds and donations. The group's financial sustainability is a result of tax evasion, the creation of safe havens, and the maintenance of global networks.

An effective fight against terrorism requires multilateral cooperation, states must exchange intelligence, align strategies, and strengthen security capacities in regions most vulnerable to terrorist activities.

The absence of any element presents an opportunity for extremist groups like IS, as was the case in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal, and in Africa's Sahel after France's departure from the region. In the Sahel region, the withdrawal of French forces has resulted in changes in regional alliances.

"The military juntas installed in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, following recent military coups, have attempted to fill the vacuum in counter-terrorism efforts, drawing on Russia, which has significantly increased its presence in the region ," Shtuni said.

The United States remains at the forefront of counterterrorism efforts, along with regional partners, as demonstrated by recent strikes against IS targets in Iraq, Syria, and Somalia. This month, a U.S.-led coalition helped Iraqi forces kill Abdullah Maki Musleh al-Rifai, known as Abu Khadija. Described by the Iraqi government as “one of the most dangerous terrorists in Iraq and the world,” Abu Khadija was a leader of IS in Iraq and Syria.

However, Shtun warned that there are growing concerns that Washington's changing priorities could harm the global fight against extremism "as it becomes clear that the US is focusing on domestic issues and reassessing its role on the global stage."

General Michael E. Kurilla, head of the US military's Central Command, said that the thousands of IS fighters in Syria in centers run by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces constitute "figuratively an army in lockdown" and warned of dangers "in the region and beyond" if that number of them flee.

Kurilla said during a visit to Syria in January - a month after the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad - that the US military "continues to be dedicated to the mission, the people and the defeat of IS, as well as to stability in the region and beyond."

Devorah Margolin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Radio Free Europe that IS is "playing a waiting game" in Syria.

"It is hoping to exploit the uncertainties in the new Syria to destabilize and advance its agenda ," Margolin said.

Clarke, from the Soufan Group, said that the lack of a US presence in Afghanistan, following the withdrawal in 2021, has left a "huge intelligence gap" in the fight against IS.

"The US has been forced to depend on any intelligence signals and there is very little human intelligence in Afghanistan," he said.

Clarke called IS "a much different organization today than it was seven years ago when it still had a caliphate," saying it is "much more reliant on external operations and other attacks to generate publicity."

"They have deliberately changed their strategy to focus on launching high-profile attacks in the West," he said.  "They have been aggressive in their plans and are determined to carry out spectacular attacks in Europe or the US."/ REL