Could the US-Iran battle for Hormuz be a victory for Russia and China?

For years, policymakers in Washington have viewed Asia primarily through the prism of Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China’s growing military power. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has only reinforced this view, consolidating Europe and East Asia as the main arenas of geopolitical competition.

But security experts in Southeast Asia are increasingly arguing that another crisis, thousands of miles away, in the Middle East, could reshape the regional balance of power, far more than Ukraine or Taiwan. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes, has become impossible for governments across Southeast Asia to ignore. 

As tensions involving Iran threaten one of the world's most important energy transport routes, analysts say the consequences are already changing regional calculations about security, diplomacy and alliances. "We are already seeing ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] moving closer to Russia, not in terms of security, but because of energy dependence," Lester Joseph Buitizon, a threat intelligence analyst at Aldebaran Threat Consultants, based in Manila. His work focuses on international security and politics in the Middle East and North Africa, told RFE/RL.

Military operations between the United States and Iran in recent days have brought attention back to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran claims control of this strategic transit route, while the US says it has carried out airstrikes on targets in southern Iran "to further weaken Iranian military capabilities used to attack merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz."

Despite the large US military presence, shipping companies remain hesitant to pass through the strait, highlighting a reality that goes beyond naval power: the biggest challenge may be restoring trust in commercial operators.

The transportation of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is vitally important for Southeast Asia, as the region continues to be heavily dependent on energy coming from the Middle East.

For example, the Philippines imports more than 90 percent of its oil from the Middle East, making any supply disruption an immediate economic and political concern, not just a distant foreign policy issue.

Although Manila remains one of Washington's closest allies and public opinion continues to favor the US over China, the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has sought to increase access to Russian crude oil and has expanded discussions for long-term energy cooperation.

For Buitizon, the message is simple. If even the US's closest regional ally is forced to cooperate with Moscow to guarantee energy supplies, then countries with more neutral foreign policies, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, will likely do so even more easily.

"If Russia successfully reorients its economy towards the East," he argued, "then Western sanctions become structurally less effective."

While Russia may benefit economically, China may gain diplomatic benefits from the same situation.

According to Vincent Kyle Parada, a defense research analyst at the Philippine Navy's Office of Strategic Naval Studies and Strategy Management, there was a period when ASEAN managed to maintain a balance between East and West: China had economic growth, while the US guaranteed regional security.

Today, Parada said, that distinction is becoming increasingly blurred. He said the crisis with Iran is proof that economic security and national security have become inseparable.

"The intertwining between the economy and security has become much greater than it was 10 or 20 years ago," Parada told Radio Free Europe.

He added that recent US policy decisions, including cutting development aid to the region, trade tensions and intervention in Iran, have weakened Washington's position across Southeast Asia, while creating opportunities for China to expand its economic influence.

"China actually doesn't need to do anything but wait," he said./REL